Fourth-ranked Stanford had its biggest test of the year against seventh-ranked Oregon, and just like last year, the Ducks ran all over the Cardinal. Oregon hung 50 points on Stanford for the second year in a row, and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck had his worst game of the year. The loss not only knocks Stanford out of national title contention, it likely cost the Cardinal a chance at the Pac-12 title as well. Only resurgent USC and hapless Oregon State stand in the way of Oregon reaching the inaugural Pac-12 championship game where they would face a less-than-stellar representative from the Pac-12 South division.
The 53-30 win vaulted Oregon back into the national championship discussion. After starting the year off with a 40-27 loss to top-ranked LSU in Texas, Oregon has rebounded nicely and steamrollered the opposition. In the nine games since that season-opening defeat, Oregon’s lowest scoring output was 34 against Washington. They have topped 50 points three times and put up 69 against Nevada. If Oklahoma State falters, Oregon is in good position to make it to the title game.
The most shocking upset was TCU defeating Boise State 36-35 on the blue turf in Boise, where the Broncos never lose. Boise State boasted the longest regular season winning streak since 1978 with 65 straight wins and had the longest conference home winning streak during that time at 47 games. With prolific senior quarterback Kellen Moore, the winningest quarterback in history, and an experienced team, the Broncos were expected to coast through their schedule. TCU is an excellent program, but after losing quarterback Andy Dalton and a slew of talent from last year’s undefeated Rose Bowl-winning team, the Horned Frogs are in the midst of a rebuilding year. TCU’s vaunted defense has struggled this year, giving up 50 points to Baylor and 40 to SMU. This figured to be a mismatch.
It was, just not in the way people expected.
Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall threw for a career-high 473 yards and five touchdowns and passed at will as TCU strafed Boise State’s injury-riddled secondary. A gutsy two-point conversion call by Coach Gary Patterson put the Horned Frogs up by one with just over a minute to go, and for the second straight year, Boise State was done in by a missed field goal. In the Broncos’ loss to Nevada last year, kicker Kyle Brotzman missed a chip-shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won the game and another in overtime. This year, kicker Dan Goodale pushed his attempt wide right as time ran down, sealing the win for TCU.
This loss hurts Boise State much more than Stanford’s shellacking at the hands of Oregon. The Cardinal is still in line for a possible BCS bowl bid. Not only does Boise State have no shot at a national championship, they will most likely be shut out of a lucrative BCS bowl. Houston is still undefeated and, provided the Cougars win out, would finish ranked high enough to earn an automatic bid. Furthermore, since the Broncos most likely will not win the Mountain West (TCU is undefeated in conference play and only has to play Colorado State and UNLV), they will not be guaranteed a spot since the guaranteed spot only applies to conference champions. The Broncos would be eligible for an at-large spot, but the chances of them being selected over a team from one of the bigger conference are slim.
So what does this mean for the national title race?
Immovable Object vs. Unstoppable Force
If LSU and Oklahoma State win out, they’re in. They are the lone undefeated teams remaining from BCS conferences. The Tigers’ stalwart defense mauls opponents, ranking second in the nation in points against with an average of 10.7 per game. Oklahoma State explodes scoreboards, averaging a whopping 51.7 points per game.
However, the roads for both teams are not clear. Each still has a significant obstacle in its path. Oklahoma State ends its season at home with a titanic clash against #5 Oklahoma that should at least be the Game of the Month. Oklahoma has owned the series, both historically and in recent years. Despite losing their leading receiver and top running back, the Sooners still boast plenty of firepower. Can the Cowboys get over the hump and dispatch their hated rivals?
A home game against #6 Arkansas looms for LSU. The Razorbacks boast a potent offense and have enjoyed recent success against LSU, winning three of the past four meetings. If LSU gets by Arkansas, they still have to play the SEC Championship Game, most likely against Georgia. On paper, LSU should have the edge, but crazy things have been known to happen in title games.
What happens if one of these teams falters?
Complete and Utter Chaos
If either Oklahoma State or LSU drops a game, the picture becomes quite muddled.
If one of those teams loses, who should replace them? There is no clear-cut answer. The next four teams in the BCS standings are, in order: Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
If the Cowboys lose, especially to Oklahoma, who should go? Normally, the #3 team would move up, but that is Alabama. The Crimson Tide lost a barnburner, 9-6 in overtime, to LSU just two weeks ago. While Alabama fans are itching for a rematch, voters tend to avoid that. Back in 2006, Michigan lost to Ohio State in the first Game of the Century in the past five years, and voters moved one-loss Florida ahead of the Wolverines to avoid a rematch. It is likely that they will try to avoid doing that this year, especially since LSU beat Alabama on the road.
Okay, so if voters want to avoid a rematch between Alabama and LSU, then naturally they’ll choose the #4 team, right? Unfortunately, that team is Oregon, which already played LSU this year and was blown out. Plus, Oregon was stifled by Auburn last year, and Auburn’s defense is nowhere near the caliber of LSU’s.
If voters want to avoid a rematch in the title game and avoid Alabama, then they can’t choose Oregon, either. How can they justify choosing a team that lost by two touchdowns over a team that lost in overtime by a field goal to the same team? They can’t.
Well, how about the #5 team? Oklahoma hasn’t played LSU, so the rematch issue is avoided. Problem solved, right? “Not so fast, my friend!” as Lee Corso would say. Unlike Oregon and Alabama, Oklahoma didn’t lose to a top-five team. The Sooners didn’t even lose to a ranked team. They lost at home to an unranked Texas Tech team that was a four-touchdown underdog. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Red Raiders proceeded to build off their statement win by going into a complete tailspin and losing their next three games by scores of 41-7, 52-20, and 66-6.
Plus, this is the BCS. Every game matters... well some more than others. The regular season is like a playoff. Lose, and you’re out… except when you’re not.
The situation becomes real interesting in Arkansas manages to knock off LSU. That would force a three-way tie for first in the SEC West between Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU. Arkansas would have beaten LSU but lost handily to Alabama. The Crimson Tide would have beaten Arkansas but lost to the Tigers at home. LSU would have defeated Alabama on the road but lost to the Razorbacks at home. Who deserves to go? According to SEC rules, it would be the highest-ranked team in the BCS standings, which would be Alabama. LSU fans would have a beef because of the Tigers’ victory on November 5. Arkansas fans would be unhappy because they just knocked off the #1 team in the country on the road. Boise fans would be unhappy because it coulda/woulda/shoulda been them.*
Seventh-ranked Clemson can't be an option because how can one justify vaulting them over five other teams?
The most interesting, and admittedly far-fetched, scenario would be one where these teams suffer multiple losses and beat each up other. Say Oklahoma State lays an egg against Iowa State and then knocks off Oklahoma. Ole Miss blows out LSU. Georgia wins the SEC. Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.
The voters are disgusted by all this and elevate undefeated Conference USA champion Houston into the BCS championship game. The outpouring of raw fury from the south causes forest fires to break out in the Midwest. They take it out on Big 10 teams. Again. Stanford eloquently raises an objection. Boise State fans go absolutely apoplectic and try to break away from the union. The Big East is still irrelevant.
For those of you who like things clear-cut, root for Oklahoma State and LSU to run the table. The result will be an interesting matchup between high-powered offense and potent defense.
For those of you who despise the BCS and revel in absolute madness, root for these teams to drop a game.
*Why is it that these elite, powerhouse programs can never find a reliable kicker? Boise State loses two years in a row because of missed field goals. Alabama missed four field goals against LSU. Florida State turned missed kicks into an art form.
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