Breaking Down the Contenders

This past weekend saw two more undefeated teams drop from the ranks, with one coming as a surprise and the other not so much.

Kansas State, arguably the most surprising team of the year, was trounced at home by Oklahoma 58-17. Coming off a 7-6 season, the Wildcats were widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12, yet they rattled off seven straights wins and rose to #8 in the nation. However, most people expected them to come back down to Earth against preseason-#1 Oklahoma. Kansas State put up a fight early, taking a 17-14 lead, but the Wildcats simply do not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Sooners.

Clemson was the other surprise undefeated team, having started the year unranked and eventually rising to #5 in the country after going 7-0 and defeating defending-national champion Auburn, preseason-#5 Florida State, and ACC favorite Virginia Tech in successive weeks. Led by Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins, the Tigers had lit up opposing defenses and come roaring back from deficits. Unfortunately for them, their penchant for falling behind early came back to bite them as the Tigers were unable to overcome a 24-3 halftime deficit to Georgia Tech.

As a result, there are now only six undefeated teams remaining in college football. After Saturday, at least one of those teams will have a loss, as there is a little scrimmage going on down in Tuscaloosa that you may have heard about.

The top-ranked LSU Tigers take on #2 Alabama Saturday night in at least the second “Game of the Century” in the past five years. Barring a major catastrophe, the winner will make it to the BCS title game. If LSU wins, the toughest team remaining on its schedule is #7 Arkansas, a team that Alabama handily beat 38-14. Ole Miss is in the midst of an 11-game SEC losing streak, and while resurgent Western Kentucky is vying for the Sun Belt crown, it’s still the Sun Belt.

The Crimson Tide has an even easier schedule with Mississippi State, Georgia Southern, and the Iron Bowl against Auburn as its remaining games.

Whichever team wins Saturday will be heavily favored in the SEC championship game, most likely against Georgia or a South Carolina team that kicked its starting quarterback, Stephen Garcia, off the roster and lost its star player, running back Marcus Lattimore, to a season-ending injury.

This leaves two questions: of the remaining undefeated teams, which has the best chance of making it to the BCS title game? Which team poses the biggest threat to the SEC champion in that game?

Oklahoma State

For the Cowboys, it’s simple: win and you’re in. Currently sitting at #3 in the BCS standings, Oklahoma State will reach the title bout if it runs the table. One of the two teams ahead of them in the standings will lose this weekend, ensuring the Cowboys will move up. Plus, wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma will boost Oklahoma State’s strength-of-schedule and prevent the Cowboys from being leapfrogged by another team.

If the Cowboys hold serve and reach the title game, it is likely that they will be the underdog. Stage-fright is a definite concern. They have never been on such a big stage as the BCS championship game, and in past big games against Oklahoma with Big 12 championship and BCS bowl berths on the line, they have come up empty.

Also, the Cowboys simply don’t match up well against LSU or Alabama. They are a spread team with a high-powered offense. Led by quarterback Brandon Weeden and receiver Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State boasts the nation’s fourth-ranked passing attack and is second in the country in scoring. Running back Joseph Randle provides the ground attack for the Cowboys, averaging 6.2 yards-per-carry for 842 yards and 16 touchdowns.

This type of firepower isn’t new to the behemoths of the SEC. Just ask Troy Smith and Ohio State, Sam Bradford and Oklahoma, Colt McCoy and Texas, and LaMichael James and Oregon how things worked out. Alabama and LSU have a glut of NFL prospects on their defenses. They have the size and speed to counter spread attacks. Spread offenses are predicated on getting players open in space, but Alabama and LSU are too fast to let that happen. Oklahoma State has not seen a defense like the one they would face in the championship game. The best defense in the Big 12 is Oklahoma, and the Sooners were torched by Texas Tech.

Defense has been the weaker side of the ball for Oklahoma State in recent years, and this season is no different. The Cowboys are currently ranked 111th in total defense and gave up 622 yards to Baylor this past weekend. Sports Illustrated writer Stewart Mandel writes that the statistic is not that important. He brings up some good points about how the numbers are misleading and how the Cowboys excel at forcing turnovers.

However, he also says, “Oklahoma State reminds me a lot of last year’s Oregon team… The Cowboys and Ducks both had an electrifying offense that overshadowed an unsung and frankly misunderstood defense.” That same Oregon team gave up 519 total yards, including 254 on the ground, in a loss to Auburn in last year’s title game. A team cannot always rely on turnovers, and against the formidable defenses of LSU and Alabama, it is highly unlikely that the OSU defense will be playing with a huge lead. OSU’s defense will likely have to play a much bigger role, and that is just something it is not used to doing. Like Oregon last year, the Cowboys will eventually get worn down by the power running games of the SEC champion.

Furthermore, the title game is over a month after Oklahoma State’s final regular season game. That long layoff will be an impediment to the Cowboys. Not only will Nick Saban or Les Miles have weeks to prepare for OSU’s attack, the rhythm and timing of that offense will be affected. OSU is going to need its offense to be operating at peak capacity in order to win, but the long layoff will not help in that regard.

Stanford

Stanford breezed through the first seven games of its schedule and has the longest winning streak in the country. At one point, Stanford had won ten straight games by 25 points or more, the first team in 75 years to do so. This past Saturday, the Cardinal faced its first real test of the season and almost failed, pulling out a 56-48 triple-overtime victory over USC.

Stanford moved up to #4 in the latest BCS rankings. A showdown with #8 Oregon looms large on the schedule, along with the annual game against Notre Dame. If the Cardinal can get past the Ducks, a berth in the inaugural Pac 12 championship game awaits. The Cardinal’s opponent will most likely be Arizona State.

That schedule will keep Stanford from being passed by one of the teams behind it, but it will not be enough to jump an undefeated Oklahoma State in the BCS rankings. Stanford needs the Cowboys to lose. Luckily for the Cardinal, that is a very real possibility. Oklahoma State plays Oklahoma to close out the regular season, and Oklahoma has owned that matchup both historically and in recent years. All the pressure will be on the Cowboys, and with Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles, the Sooners have the firepower to keep up with Oklahoma State.

Stanford does have one huge roadblock in its road to the national championship game: Oregon. Last year, the Ducks ran all over the Cardinal in a 52-31 win. Stanford was up 31-24 at half but was outscored 28-0 in the second half. Andrew Luck threw for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns, but it was not enough as LaMichael James rushed for 257 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Oregon’s speed poses significant problems for Stanford. The loss of linebacker Shayne Skov to a season-ending injury earlier this year hurts. While the Cardinal defense held USC in check for the first half on Saturday, it got lit up in the second half for 28 points (not counting overtime). The defense will be hard-pressed to slow down Oregon, especially since the Ducks are known for cranking up their offense in the second half and putting teams away. It will be up to Andrew Luck and the Stanford offense to keep pace with Oregon and win a shootout.

If the Cardinal can remain unscathed and get some help, they will pose a significant threat to either Alabama or LSU. Unlike the SEC’s previous title game opponents, Stanford uses a traditional, pro-style offense. The Cardinal plays tough, physical football and tries to wear the opponent down. Stanford gouged Washington for almost 450 yards rushing and has a quality offensive line. Its tight ends are NFL-caliber, and oh yeah, the quarterback can play a little.

Andrew Luck is the Heisman front-runner and will be the top pick in the next NFL draft. He is considered the best NFL quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. In leading his team back to victory against USC, he has proven that he does not get rattled. Alabama and LSU have not faced a complete offense like this.

Unlike Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford, Luck has a power run game at his disposal. If Alabama or LSU load up to stuff the run, they risk Luck picking them apart. If they try and stop him, they risk letting the Cardinal running backs run roughshod.

Boise State

Ah yes, the most controversial team in football. Few teams can stir up debate and passion like the Broncos. The idea of Boise State playing for a national title, or even being ranked in the top five, is galling to many. However, one cannot deny the Broncos are a great team.

Chris Petersen is one of, if not the best coach in college football. The Broncos are a well-coached, discipline unit that is not afraid of playing on the big stage. Boise State is known for its high-scoring offense, led by Heisman contender Kellen Moore, but the Broncos’ defense is top-notch as well.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Boise State will finish with its fourth undefeated season in six years. TCU is the lone obstacle left on the schedule, and the Horned Frogs have already lost twice. Hit hard by graduation and injury, TCU’s renowned defense has struggled this year, at least by TCU standards. The Horned Frogs boast an explosive offense that is 8th in the nation in points for, but with the game being on the blue turf in Boise, where the Broncos are practically unbeatable, it is unlikely that TCU will be able to keep up with the Broncos.

The Broncos will need A LOT of help to make it to the BCS championship, though. They are currently ranked 5th and would need both Oklahoma State and Stanford to lose. That is not an implausible scenario, but the real danger is being passed by a one-loss team. Oregon and Oklahoma are both lurking in the standings, and wins over Stanford and Oklahoma State, respectively, would likely boost them ahead of the Broncos.

If, by some miracle, the Broncos did end up in the title game, it would be a helluva game. Like Stanford, Boise State is a team featuring a powerful run game and a talented quarterback. The Broncos are versatile and mix in some pistol elements to the offense, but at its core, this is a pro-style attack. Senior running back Doug Martin, the “Muscle Hamster,” leads the way on the ground, and quarterback Kellen Moore is one win away from setting the career wins record. He is 45-2 in his career.

Unlike Stanford, Boise State has an elite defense. Boise State is 10th in the nation in points allowed and is the lone team outside of the SEC that has been able to shut down Oregon’s offense. The Broncos’ defensive line wreaked havoc against Georgia, registering six sacks.

Boise State also has off-the-charts intangibles. They have a ton of experience and won’t be intimidated playing on college football’s biggest stage. The current Broncos have gone on the road and beaten Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. Boise State is 2-0 in BCS bowls. Kellen Moore has ice in his veins and isn’t fazed by anything. He is one of the most accurate passers in history and has led his team back in crunch time. The Broncos are a confident, battle-hardened bunch, and with several weeks to prepare, they would give Alabama or LSU all they could handle.

Houston

Yeah, not gonna happen.

The Cougars are too far down in the rankings and don’t have a marquee win on their schedule. They are basically Oklahoma State Lite: prolific offense and questionable defense. Quarterback Case Keenum continues his assault on the NCAA record books this week, needing only 267 yards passing to set the all-time career passing yardage mark. He already broke the records for most career touchdown passes and total yards this year. The Cougars have an outside shot at a BCS bowl bid, but even that is a longshot.

So who will end up playing for the BCS trophy in January? The Alabama-LSU matchup this Saturday is a toss-up, and my quarter says LSU. Alabama is starting a first-year quarterback whereas LSU’s quarterbacks both have significant experience.

As for the Tigers’ opponent, I’m going with either Boise State or Oklahoma. I don’t fully trust Oklahoma State and think the Sooners will win that matchup. I like Stanford but don’t think they will defeat Oregon. It’s just not a good matchup for the Cardinal.

I would love to see Chris Petersen match wits with Les Miles or Nick Saban and watch Kellen Moore and the Boise offense go up against the vaunted defenses of LSU or Alabama, but the odds are that a one-loss Oklahoma or Oregon would pass the Broncos in the BCS standings. I feel Boise State would be deserving of playing for the national title, especially if both Oklahoma State and Stanford lost, but I know the Broncos’ strength-of-schedule hurts them.

Of the two aforementioned one-loss teams, Oklahoma would get the nod over Oregon. Yes, the Sooners would have a worse loss (unranked 28-point underdog at home versus top-five opponent on the road) than the Ducks, but they would also have better wins against tougher competition. Also, voters may be reluctant to put Oregon back into the title game after last year’s loss to Auburn and this year’s season-opening defeat at the hands of LSU. They may also hesitate to have Oregon jump a Boise State team that has beaten them twice in recent years.

Regardless, it’s shaping up to be quite a stretch run in college football.