Rocky Mountain Showdown

It's here! The Rocky Mountain Showdown is finally upon us! Traditionally played on Labor Day weekend, the rivalry game between the University of Colorado Buffaloes and Colorado State Rams is the third game of the season for both teams. CU, in its first year in the Pac 12, enters the game 0-2, losing its opener to Hawai'i 34-17 and suffering a heartbreaking defeat to Cal 36-33 in overtime despite a school-record 284 receiving yards from sophomore receiver Paul Richardson. Colorado State comes in with a 2-0 record, having beaten New Mexico 14-10 and Northern Colorado 33-14.

On paper, it would seem that CSU has all the momentum heading into this game, but as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!"

CU is starting its first year in a new conference and has a new coach, so enthusiasm and excitement are rampant. Jon Embree, a former Buff, has taken over for Dan Hawkins and brought in several former Buff stars such as Eric Bienemy and Kanavis McGhee as assistants. After getting manhandled by Hawai'i, CU improved dramatically against Cal, falling in overtime to a team that had thrashed the Buffs 52-7 one year prior. The Buffs have an experienced quarterback in senior Tyler Hansen, and the aforementioned Richardson and senior tailback Rodney Stewart, who ran for over 1,300 yards last season, are CU's main offensive weapons. Plus, even though it's still early in the season, this is practically a must-win game for CU. A loss drops them to 0-3 with a trip to Columbus, Ohio to play #17 Ohio State looming ahead. A loss to CSU means CU will likely be 0-4 heading into conference play. That's not how the Buffs want to start off their first season in the Pac 12.

CSU comes into the game 2-0 led by sophomore quarterback Pete Thomas and a much-improved defense. The Ram defense stifled the Lobos, recording 10 sacks. Defensive end Nordly Capi set an NCAA record with four forced fumbles, including one with under a minute to go to stop a New Mexico drive deep in Ram territory and seal the win for CSU. The Rams came out firing on all cylinders a week later against the Bears of Northern Colorado building a 28-0 halftime lead and racking up 501 yards of total offense on the day. Any win over archrival CU is a big win, but a win here means the Rams will be 3-0 with a great chance to be undefeated at 5-0 heading into a showdown with #4 Boise State in Fort Collins on October 15.

However, there are some cracks in the Rams' armor that CU may be able to exploit. CSU has been hit hard with injuries, losing defensive lineman Broderick Sargent for the season against New Mexico and defensive stalwart Mychal Sisson to a fractured ankle suffered against UNC. Sisson, a senior linebacker, leads the nation with 40 career tackles for loss and was tops in the country with seven forced fumbles last year. He is the team's best player, and losing him is a big blow. Also, as good as the Rams were against UNC in the first half, they were just as bad in the second, getting outscored 14-5. Pete Thomas has shown marked improvement over his true freshman campaign, but he threw three interceptions against the Bears. Finally, the Rams have not faced a receiver as explosive as Richardson.

For the Rams to win, they must do four things:

1. Protect the football -- In last year's Showdown, Thomas was intercepted three times in a 24-3 CU victory. In previous games, the Rams had double-digit leads in the fourth quarter only to lose after inopportune turnovers by quarterbacks Justin Holland and Caleb Hanie. The Rams must protect the football and not allow CU to capitalize on turnovers.

2. Run the football -- CSU operates a traditional pro-style offense that is based off of the running game. In order for the offense to be truly effective, it has to have an effective running game. The last time the Rams defeated the Buffs (2009 in Boulder), they ran for 168 yards and pulled off a 23-17 upset. Being able to run the ball not only takes pressure off of Thomas, it sets up the play action passing game and will allow CSU to employ the deep ball. Thomas has improved greatly from a year ago, but it's probably asking too much for him to win this game on his own without the help of a running game.

3. Stop the run -- CU coach Jon Embree has stated that he wants the Buffs to be a power running team that will run the ball down their opponents' throats. Rodney Stewart has struggled so far this year and has failed to rush for over 100 yards. The CU offense is much like CSU's in that they need balance. CU is not going to have much success if they have to sling it around the whole game. Hawai'i was able to force the Buffs to become one-dimensional and harrassed Hanson all night. The Buff's senior quarterback is capable and experienced, but he's not the kind of guy who should be throwing 50 passes a game. CSU must keep Stewart in check. If they don't, that will allow the Buffs to open up their offense. The Rams will have to bring another guy into the box, leaving one fewer guy to cover Paul Richardson. If that happens, he could have another big day. Finally...

4. Blanket Paul Richardson -- The explosive sophomore lit up Cal's defense to the tune of 284 yards receiving on 11 catches with 2 touchdowns. He currently leads the nation in receiving yards and is the Buffs' big-play threat. The Rams must not let him take over the game and give CU a lift with some big plays. The Rams will probably look to double-cover Richardson since CU's next-leading wideout is true freshman Tyler McCulloch with 4 receptions. If the Rams can limit Richardson, they stand a good chance of winning the game.

Rivalry games are tough. The emotions and intensity are ratcheted up. The team that is able to handle those best will come out on top. This is a game that could go either way. CSU enters the game with confidence and looks much improved from a year ago. However, they are banged up. CU has some weapons but has yet to win on the year.

My prediction? As a proud Colorado State graduate and Ram fan, I can never pick CU to win. I think CSU will pull it out, 24-17.