Rocktober?

In 2007, the Colorado Rockies overcame a slow start to the season to capture the National League Wild Card and make the playoffs. They won 11 in a row, and 14-of-15, to storm back and clinch a playoff berth. They won 21-of-22 games before being swept in the World Series. The playoff frenzy became known as "Rocktober."

In 2009, the Colorado Rockies overcame a slow start to the season to capture the National League Wild Card and make the playoffs. They won 11 in a row, and 17-of-18, to storm back into contention. Their hot play continued the rest of the season, and they ended up clinching a playoff berth only to fall to the Phillies in the National League Divisional Series. Rocktober was back.

Last year, the Colorado Rockies overcame a slow start to the season by surging in September, rattling off another huge winning streak to pull within 1.5 games of the division lead. They promptly ran out of gas, losing 13-of-14 to fall out of the race.

Sensing a pattern here?

The Rockies have shown a penchant for strong second-half play and surging out of nowhere to contend for a playoff berth. Although they have been huge disappointments this year, they have started to show signs of life of late, going 7-2 on the most recent homestand including a 5-game winning streak which is their longest in what seems like millennia. This has prompted people to start talking about Rocktober. One can see why, given Colorado's history. Obviously, this is a sign that their patented late-season magic is now at hand. According to Troy Renck, Rockies beat writer for The Denver Post, the Rockies have to go something like 24-7 to close out the season to have a shot. Not good odds, but going 24-7 is nothing for a team that has twice pulled off the impossible in the last four years, right? Tulo and CarGo are finally both hot at the same time, and the team is clicking. The offense has woken up, and reinforcements from the Springs are on the way (Street and Lindstrom are off the DL, Spilborghs should be back soon, and September call-ups are days away).

The optimism is understandable, but it's best to look at this team with some objectivity and skepticism. As Renck points out, 18 of their remaining games are on the road, including 3 each against LA and San Francisco. They start their current 9-game trip in LA, long a house-of-horrors for the Rockies. Even worse, they don't have a reliable starting rotation. Winning streaks start with the rotation, but the Rockies' has been too banged up and patchwork to be consistent. It's hard to believe they can hold up to make the kind of run necessary to challenge for a playoff spot. Jhoulys Chacin is the presumptive ace, but his fastball command is too spotty. If he locates his fastball, then he's practically unhittable. If he can't throw it for strikes, then hitters lay off his off-speed stuff and drive up his pitch count. The result is an outing like the one he had against Florida on August 16: 4 IP, 5 ER, 3 BB. Walks are a problem, and he's too inconsistent to truly rely on as a staff ace. Now bear in mind, he's only 23 and has tremendous upside. He's among the lead leaders in batting average against. I just don't have complete confidence in him because of his spotty command. That's why I miss Juan Nicasio: he threw strikes. Yes, he has a lot to work on, but he's not going to walk 6 guys. He's going to make the other team put the ball in play and beat him.

Tonight's starter, Esmil Rogers, reminds me a lot of Chacin. He's too inconsistent and doesn't throw enough strikes. Plus, his fastball is flat. I'm just not sold on him as a viable rotation guy. Cook has been pretty awful this year, getting lit up in most of his starts; he doesn't appear to have much left in the tank this year. He's a sinker guy, but it's been missing. He's been hit hard as a result. Kevin Millwood has pitched pretty well for the Rockies, but he's 36 and had been out of the majors all year. I like what I've seen from him so far, but it's a lot to ask of him to carry the team at this point. Alex White has a ton of talent and promise, but he's a rookie. Again, it's a lot to ask of him to anchor the rotation in a playoff chase. He's going to have his ups-and-downs, and there isn't any margin of error for the team to have another Rocktober this year.

Even during their current win streak, the pitching hasn't been great. Their ERA is over 5, and the offense has had to carry the load. When they do get leads, the bullpen hasn't been able to hold most of them. Scoring 6 runs a game and staging comebacks isn't going to happen all the time. The starters need to step up if the team is going to make a run, and to be honest, I have my doubts they can pull it off. I sincerely hope they can and would love to be proven wrong.