Okay, so I realize that I'm a little late to the party with my LCS picks. It's usually a good idea to make a pick before the first two games have been played, I know. Anyway, these are the same picks I'd have made going into the series. Also, can I just say that the postseason chase and the division series have been the best I've ever seen? The Rockies' run to the pennant in 2007 was awesome, but this has been ever better. The drama of the last day was incredible, and the Game 5s were a fine display of baseball. Chris Carpenter turned in a performance for the ages with a complete game, 1-0 gem to knock off the Phillies, the Brewers blew a lead in the 9th yet came back to win 3-2 in extra innings, and the Tigers-Yankees game was so intense, even through the radio. Plus, the fact that Boston had the worst choke in history combined with Philly and New York losing in the first round at home makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. (Did I mention Boston choked?)
American League Championship Series
The ALCS pits the defending AL champion Texas Rangers against the Detroit Tigers. Texas lost Game 1 of the division series to Tampa only to reel off three straight wins in the only first round series that did not go the distance. Detroit had to weather the weather (pun most definitely intended) and hang on to defeat the American League's best regular season team, the aforementioned Yankees.
Detroit boasts arguably the best pitcher in the league this year, AL Cy Young frontrunner and MVP candidate Justin Verlander. Verlander became the first pitcher in 33 years to record 24 wins and 240 strikeouts in the same year. He regularly hits 100 mph on the radar gun and can sustain that velocity deep into games. Manager Jim Leyland elected not to use him in Game 5, meaning he can (and did) start Game 1 for the Tigers and is in line to start Game 4 and a potential Game 7. With Max Scherzer, midseason acquisition Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello behind Verlander, the Tigers have a good, solid rotation, and closer Jose Valverde has been perfect in save situations on the season. The Tigers are a good offensive team, ranking 3rd in the AL in batting average and 4th in runs. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez anchor the middle of their lineup.
Texas' strength is its lineup. The Rangers were 3rd in runs and led the league in batting average. Five Rangers had 25 home runs or more, and that doesn't include Michael Young, who still drove in 106 runs. Texas' starters, led by CJ Wilson, are a solid group who are unfazed by pitching in the hitters' park that is the Ballpark in Arlington. The Rangers boast a stout bullpen with lockdown relievers in Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando, and closer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers get a lead late, they like their chances.
Detroit enters the series banged up. Brennan Boesch was already out, and Delmon Young hurt his oblique. Since then, Magglio Ordonez injured his ankle and is out for the series, meaning Young is going to try and play through the pain. Detroit has some depth, and Jim Leyland has not been afraid to shuffle his lineup. Also, as good as Verlander is, he has been awful in the postseason, compiling a 5.71 ERA in 7 starts. Detroit is going to need him to come up big to win this series, especially with their injury problems, but he has yet to give a commanding postseason performance. Texas is experienced after their World Series appearance last year, and they have a deeper lineup and a strong back-end in their bullpen. It is going to be too much for Detroit to overcome.
Prediction: Rangers in 6
National League Championship Series
The 2011 NLCS features two teams from the NL Central: the division-winning Milwaukee Brewers and Wild Card St. Louis Cardinals. It is safe to say that these two teams do not like each other, so this figures to be a heated, intense series. The two teams are a study in contrast. Milwaukee is a younger, fun-loving team that shows its emotions and is not afraid to ruffle some feathers whereas the Cardinals take a more stoic, business-like approach. Both teams had to win a deciding Game 5 to reach the NLCS.
Milwaukee defeated Arizona in the divisional series and has a tremendous home field advantage. They had the best home record in all of baseball, and their fans have been electric. Behind MVP candidates Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, the Brewers finished the season 3rd in the NL in batting average and 5th in runs. They have a deep, talented rotation with ace Yovanni Gallardo, former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, and the back-end of their bullpen is formidable with setup man Francisco Rodriguez and closer John Axford.
St. Louis stunned the NL East, first overcoming a 10.5 deficit on August 25 by winning 23 of their last 31 games to overtake the Atlanta Braves on the last day of the season to clinch the NL Wild Card. They then beat the heavily-favored Phillies and their Four Aces in the NLDS in five games to advance to the NLCS. The strength of this Cardinals team is its offense. St. Louis led the NL in both average and runs. Albert Pujols is arguably the best player in the game today, and with Pujols, Matt Holliday, and a rejuvenated Lance Berkman, the Cardinals have as a good a middle-of-the-lineup as anybody. Their pitching staff has been a mess. Staff co-ace Adam Wainwright missed the season with Tommy John surgery, and Ryan Franklin struggled early and was deposed as closer. Jason Motte has taken hold of the closer's role and has pitched well, but he is still a rookie. Chris Carpenter is a legitimate ace but will be limited in this series after pitching in Game 5 against Philadelphia. Edwin Jackson is the only other starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better, and he has been a journeyman throughout his career.
On paper, Milwaukee has all the advantages: deep, talented rotation; raucous home crowd; power relievers to finish off a game; and a lineup that can hit with St. Louis. The Cardinals' are somewhat banged up, with Matt Holliday hindered by a hand injury and Skip Schumaker taken off the LCS roster due to an oblique injury. However, St. Louis is an experienced, veteran team that has been here before. They know how to win and have one of the best managers of all time. They will not be fazed by playing in Milwaukee. They just have that look like this is their year, and I believe they will find a way to get it done.
Prediction: Cardinals in 7
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